Article 12119

Title of the article

THE RESULTS OF APPLYING THE HYBRID METHOD TO ASSESS FUNCTIONAL RISKS OF INFRINGEMENT OF SAFETY OF TRAFFIC ON THE REGIONAL AND LINEAR LEVELS ON THE FARM PATH 

Authors

Verevkina Olga Ivanovna, candidate of technical sciences, associate professor, sub-department of management of operational work, Rostov State Transport University (344038, 2 square of the Rostov Infantry Regiment of the National Militia, Rostov-on-Don, Russia), E-mail: ov18111966@mail.ru 

Index UDK

656.25 (2Р37) + 06 

DOI

10.21685/2307-4205-2019-1-12 

Abstract

Background. Development of a hybrid method of risk assessment (hereinafter hybrid method) in the direction of accounting for the dynamics of factors in the short term (from quarter to year), adaptation of the hybrid method to use in the linear enterprises of JSC "Russian Railways", specification of the range of input data for the calculation.
Materials and methods. Analysis of seasonal fluctuations, regression analysis of time series, olvm, the method of event trees, the theory of error-of the human operator, the matrix of risk.
Results. Data were collected and factor assessment of train safety risks at the level of line enterprises of the North Caucasus railway was carried out. Risk reduction measures are formulated individually for each enterprise, proposals for modifying the list of input data necessary for the calculation are formulated.
Conclusions. The developed changes make it possible to assess risks in the short term, to develop measures to reduce risk, taking into account the volume of measures about infrastructure management, usually used in the track economy, including those related to "capital" costs, which will solve the problem of optimizing management measures and the combination of "capital" – "current" costs. 

Key words

infrastructure, analysis, hybrid method, event trees, risk assessment, regression analysis of time series, assessment of parameters of acceptable risk, forecast, probability, corrective measures 

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Дата создания: 22.04.2019 16:19
Дата обновления: 23.04.2019 11:06